Three local places to watch as YouGov predicts ‘red tide’ for Coventry and Warwickshire

Three constituencies in Warwickshire could be won by Labor at the next general election, according to polling website YouGov, sparking a red wave in the local area. Labor is expected to keep all three Coventry seats, as well as Warwick and Leamington Spa, safe.

But polls suggest Nuneaton, Rugby and Bedworth & North Warwickshire could all be Labor gains from Tory MPs. The last of these three seats is the closest race in our area to date, with just 4% between the Labor and Tory candidates.

According to YouGov, this makes it Warwickshire’s toss-up, along with 131 others across the country, where margins are five percentage points or less.

Read more: Keir Starmer visits Nuneaton as he launches key childcare plan for general election

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Despite this, Kenilworth & Southam, Meriden & Solihull East and Stratford-on-Avon buck the trend and are expected to remain firmly with the Tories.

This latest MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) projection asked 60,000 respondents across the country how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow. The results showed that Labor would win a majority of 194 seats in the election, securing a total of 422 seats.

If this projection were to come true on election day, Keir Starmer’s majority would be larger than Tony Blair’s in 1997. It would also be the second largest majority in British political history, behind his 210 Stanley Baldwin from 1924.

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